総ページ数

P8

ブックの説明

大学入試を廻る長期展望
The Long-term Prospects for Entrance Examinations to Universities

古藤　浩
KOTO Hiroshi

With a long continuous trend of the population of
18-year-olds decreasing, the university applicant’s
decreasing tendency becomes a big problem for
many universities. It is forecast that the number
of applicants for universities will decrease 20% in
2010 from present level.
The long-term view related to the university entrance
exam is shown in this research. We focus on
the fact that the average number of applying universities
per one-applicant decreases with the decrease
of competing rate. It is thought that the gross
university competing rate synchronizes with the
number of applicants for universities, and the
auther construct the model of estimation.
The result of the auther’s forecast shows that because
of the tendency of decreasing number of applications
per one applicant, the number of applicants
to universities will severely decrease, and the
decreasing pace is greater than that of 18 year-olds’
population. Accurately, it is forecast that the gross
number of applicants to universities decreases to
the half or one-thirds of the present level.
Using the result, the auther show the prediction of
the number of applicants to Tohoku University of
Art and Design.

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