Analysis of Retail Deserts using Grid System Data of Yamagata
古藤浩 Hiroshi KOTO
Recently in Japan, the issues of “food deserts” and
“retail deserts” have become important. Schuetz et al.
(2012) pointed out that poor urban neighborhoods often
face conditions of so-called “food deserts”. Especially,
the problem of elderly people in “retail deserts” is very
important in Japan because the income of elderly people
is not large, and they have justifiable anxiety about driving
a car, makeing difficult to shop for daily necessaries.
Other developed countries face similar problems because
of the aging of populations in such societies. In this paper,
first, we explore situations of “retail deserts” through grid
system data of Yamagata prefecture (9323km2)in Japan.
Research on retail deserts in such a wide region is scarce.
Second,we try to derive the probability of areas becoming
“retail deserts” by analysis of data from two different time
periods. Finally, we estimate and forecast the number of
elderly people in “retail deserts”, now and in the future.
Retail deserts, Time series data, Grid System data of Japan, Discriminant
analysis of retail survival, Gravity model